Today, the 13th of January 2024 the Taiwanese go to the polls to elect a new government. This is a significant moment as the results of this election are being monitored like no other. On the one side, we have China who has claimed Taiwan as part of their territory despite having never controlled it; on the other, we have the USA who remains Taiwan’s international backer and arms supplier. USA-China relations have been terse and tense over the last few years and the results of today’s election will provide a barometer as to what level the pressure between the two super-powers goes.
China’s Xi Jin-ping has called on the Taiwanese electorate to choose between ‘war and peace’,[i] a seeming veiled threat of the possible outcome of the election should their preferred candidate not be selected.
The three candidates are the current vice-president, Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which champions Taiwan’s sovereignty and separate identity from China; his biggest challenger, Hou Yu-ih, from the Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s main opposition party has traditionally favoured closer ties with China; and the third contender and a bit of an outsider, Ko Wen-je, the founder of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), founded only in 2019. His focus is on the basic issues of wages, housing and cost of living and he has been especially well received by younger voters.
Taiwan’s national chart is one that is contentious as two charts exist: one for the declaration of the democratic republic in 1912 and the other for when the last major constitution of the Nationalist regime came into force on 25 Dec 1947. I have chosen to go with the latter as it reflects the most recent evolution of Nationalist China. The chart below is set for Taipei, the capital of Taiwan.[ii]
Whilst the angles cannot be taken into serious consideration due to a lack of a confirmed time, we can look at some of the major statements in the chart:
Saturn-Pluto conjunction –Taiwan shares the signature with several countries which came into being as a consequence of the shift in the geo-political climate in the post-war era. Saturn-Pluto simply makes a statement of hardship, duress, stamina and perseverance which surrounded the nation’s birth. The conjunction perfected a few months before in August, 1947 colouring the circumstances which saw the then Republican Government of Chiang Kai-shek defeated by Mao’s army and retreating to the island of Formosa, now known as Taiwan.
Mercury-Uranus opposition – brings to light the conflicting ideologies and rhetoric which have shaped the island nation. Being of China and yet maintaining independent ideas, having a representative government and continually defending its right to exist outside the Mainland’s control have been the challenges Taiwan has faced. Mercury in detriment reflect’s Taiwan’s precarious ideological position: on the one hand, keeping China at bay by insisting on its democratic principles and at the same time trying to forge alliances in its own right with other nations who prevaricate between keeping China on side by not recognising Taiwan’s status as a sovereign state.
Taurus Moon conjunct the North Node – gives a sense of the people’s desire for security and stability howver it receives a square from both Saturn and Pluto highlighting both the challenges that has faced the population in the past as well as the ever-present shadow of Beijing’s insistent and constant attention in its pursuit of unifying Taiwan with mainland China.
Capricorn Sun – is disposited by the Saturn in Leo, in its detriment and receiving a trine from Mars in Virgo. The Sun is bolstered by the aspect from Mars. Both are in the terms of Mercury and Taiwan has always maintained its position albeit the difficulties which have been detrimental especially in gaining recognition from the rest of the world. The election today had the polls opening at 8:00am and closing at 4:00pm CCT[iii] and the chart below is set for the close of polls.
The chart has Cancer rising with its lord, the Moon in Aquarius in the Eighth house, receiving a tight square from Uranus, suggesting that the results reflect an uncertain, unstable or unexpected result. Mars, exalted in Capricorn, sits on the Descendant reflecting that there may be contentions or contests that follow the results of the election. Which candidate prevails? The one from the ruling party, the DPP; or the opposition party, the Kuominatng or the outsider from the TPP and can the astrology reveal the winner?
Given that the chart has Neptune sitting on the MC, Uranus squaring the Moon, lord of the Cancer Ascendant and a strong Mars in the house of enemies and alliances, we could possibly say there is a lot of anxiety, nervousness and uncertainty. The outcome may also result in rivals contesting the results as the world waits with baited breath. Both China and the USA have a lot riding on the election and it is a known fact that China would be very ‘displeased’ should the DPP retain its hold on government.
What impact does the election have on the country? Below is a bi-wheel with the close of Polls chart on the outer wheel and the Taiwan national chart on the inside:
The first thing to notice is transiting Uranus sitting exact on the nation’s Moon, mirroring the anxiety and uncertainty of the election chart. Uranus also squares the natal Saturn-Pluto suggesting that the election may also stir up past resentments, suffering or even crimes.
The Election Ascendant sits in the degree opposite the Capricorn Sun, perhaps challenging the authority of the government or the ruling party; it could also indicate a challenge to the establishment or those that represent traditional or established authority. Meanwhile, transiting Saturn opposes the nation’s Mars, setting up another testimony which augurs hostility, opposition or a blocking of the nation’s choice of political direction.
Transiting Neptune squares the natal Mercury-Uranus opposition and this may see rumours, misinformation or deception in a “who said what” scenario as the message of the election may be marred as a consequence of perceived or actual interference.
From the testimonies, the indications are that the results may favour the DPP, the incumbent party but there may be challenges to the outcome especially as the lord of the Pisces MC (of the Election chart), is Jupiter in Taurus, making a trine to the exalted Mars in Capricorn. And with Neptune conjunct the MC, the outcome may also not be as clear cut as it seems.
The election results will certainly influence the relationships which are at stake: that between Taiwan and Beijing, that of China and the USA, and then how Taiwan develops future relationships with the rest of the world with China's shadow looming over its shoulder.
A win to the DPP will displease China as it will see it as Taiwan digging its heels into its democratic principles. A win to the opposition KMT will send red flags (pardon the pun) to the USA, who fears losing its toe-hold in Asia. The unlikely and unorthodox result with a win to the TPP will certainly add some spice to the situatiion as although flagging a 'status quo' stance, the TPP does not see 'unification' with China as part of this vision.
As of writing, the polls have just closed as the world waits with baited breath.
Watch out for my next instalment!
Mari Garcia
13/01/24
[i] Taiwan election: Kuomintang party asks voters to choose between war and peace. BBC World News 9 January 2024. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67909071 Accessed: 12/1/24
[ii] Campion, Nicholas. The Book of World Horoscopes. Cinnabar Press, 1995, page 120.
[iii] CCT – China Coast Time -8:00 hours.